● 林兆权 by desmond lum
in these times when market forces appear increasingly
complicated and more volatile, it is all the more important
to understand the professional jargon and terminology in the
market place in order to be able to better make our investment
and business decisions. understanding key-economic indicators
will assist in the decision making process, providing a snapshot
of the current situation and an insight into the future.
each economic indicator tells us something about the
economy or inflation. gross domestic product (gdp) is probably
the most important report as it is the whole framework where
other economic indicators fall under. using the textbook formula
where gross national product = consumption + investment +
government spending + exports - imports, some of the indicators
will fall into the above-mentioned category e.g. retail sales
figures will fall under consumption, construction spending under
investment, to name a few.
there are also indicators that are broader that tell us
about the economy itself rather than the component, e.g.
employment figures, leading indicators, money supply figures
(m3). inflation figures, produce price index (ppi) and the
consumer price index (cpi) will, in short , inform us of
the changes in wholesale prices , cost of consumer (retail)
goods and services respectively.
an indicator that is useful must be accurate, timely and
reliable. it depends entirely on the integrity of the national
statistical system responsible. it is vital to know the accurate
components of an indicator. we have to be mindful of the
limitation of these statistical figures too.
some indicators can be historic or extremely volatile, and
therefore their value are reduced. it is better to compare the
most recent data with earlier months, or take a moving average
for the past 3,6 or 12 months to smooth the data. it will tell
us if there has been a significant change in trend and whether
a new direction is under way.
timeliness of an indicator is also significant. although
the reported figures are important, it is crucial to recognise
that markets react to the variance to the consensus forecast
than to the absolute change in the indicator. markets do not
like surprises and can be frustrated with volatility upon
subsequent revisions to the numbers published, even though
significance of the absolute number diminishes with each
passing month.
in the us, together with the monthly employment report
released on the first friday of the month, an important
survey by us national association of purchasing management
(napm) is released within the first three business day of
the month, which tracks the economic movements fairly well.
these two reports are considered by many as valuable adjunct
to the commerce department’s index of leading indicators.
the index of leading economic indicators (lei) in the us
acts as an early warning system, telling us when the economy
is about to change direction. this composite index of 11
leading indicators has a good record of providing accurate
forecasts. the total index performs better as a prediction
tool than any of its parts. this monthly figure is available
on the last business day of the month and has low
volatility.
as a general rule, turning points in the economy are
signalled by three consecutive months of lei changes in the
same direction. this leading indicator is like a lighthouse,
giving the rest of the world economies a glimpse of the
direction of the world’s largest economy.
singapore is highly dependent on trade, about four times
our gdp in 1997 at us $217.7 billion. the us is the most
important destination for our electronics exports, followed
by malaysia. electronic goods make up about 70% of non-oil
domestic exports and about 45% of manufacturing sector. it
is therefore imperative to note the demand of electronic
goods from the us. as singapore imports much of the raw
materials needed for its value-added processes in the
manufacturing concerns, the retained import figures become a
good gauge of future activities.
retain import, a leading indicator (usually about three
months) for the manufacturing sector, is still down. it fell
15.6% for 1998. this spells weak manufacturing and
electronics figures in the following two quarters. july’s
total trade figures fell 9.1%, singapore-made exports (also
known as non-oil domestic exports) fell 2.3% worse than
expected, led by the 5% decline in exports of electronic
goods. although the accuracy of the predicting quality is
debatable, the retained import figure does give a relatively
good indication of the direction of the manufacturing and
electronic activities and as such the singapore economy.
the indicator that reflects the domestic demand is the
non-oil imports. it fell 19.3% in july, the fifth month in a
row. on a three-month trend basis, the decline is
accelerating, reflecting extreme weakness in domestic
consumption.
(the writer is fund manager of jardine fleming investment
management singapore.this column has the support of the
investment management association of singapore and the stock
exchange of singapore.)
了解主要经济指标的意义
在目前这种时期，市场越来越变幻莫测、波动也越来越大，明白
市场的专业术语和名词因此变得更重要。主要经济指标传达的信息包
括当前的经济状况以及未来可能出现的情况，能协助制定投资和商业
决策。
每个经济指标都能给我们一些有关经济表现或通货膨胀的信息，
其中应以国内生产总值最重要，因为它包括了全部的经济指标。经济
课本把国内生产总值的方程式列为：
消费＋投资＋政府开支＋出口－进口 从以上的方程式可看出它
包含了许多经济数据，如零售销售数字包括在消费、建筑开支属投资
部分等。
除此之外，就业数字、领先指标和货币供应也是很有用的数字。
通胀方面，生产物价指数和消费物价指数分别让我们知道物品和服务
的批发和消费价格的变动。
经济指标必须准确、及时和可靠才算有用
。这完全依赖有关统计
系统是否完善。知道有关指标是由哪些成分组成也非常重要。另外，
我们也应知道这些统计数字的局限性。
有些指标可能过时或是波动剧烈，减低了它们的有效性。因此，
比较妥当的做法是把最新数字与之前几个月份的比较，或是利用过去
3个月、6个月或是12个月的平均移动数。我们将能因此知道是否出现
显著的趋势改变或者在朝新发展方向。
指标的及时性也不容忽略。不过有一点应该注意的是，市场通常
不是对实际数字做出反应，而是它与市场的平均预测相差有多远。市
场不喜欢“惊喜”，也不喜欢波动或之后做出调整。
在美国，除商业部公布的领先指标指数外，每月初公布的就业报
告和采购经理指数也是两份重要的报告。后者能相当准确地反映制造
业的活动。
领先经济指标指数在当地可是个预先警报系统，能显示经济是否
正要转向。它包括11个指数，整体指数比任何一个单一指数更准确地
预测走向。通常，这个数字在每月的最后一个工作日公布。
一般上，如果连续三个月往同个方向转变，是经济正转向的征兆
。它也像是个灯塔，让全世界窥探美国这个世界最大经济体的走向。
新加坡是个高度依赖对外贸易的国家，去年的对外贸易额相等于
国内生产总值的4倍。美国是我国电子产品出口的最大市场，马来西
亚仅排在之后；而电子产品占非石油国内出口的七成，制造业的45%
。因此，源自美国的电子产品需求是个重要的指标。
由于我国生产的增值产品需要许多进口原料，保留进口因此也是
个值得注意的数字。
做为制造业领先指标（通常是三个月）的保留进口，目前仍处在
下跌状态。今年上半年它跌了15.6%，意味着未来两季制造业和电子
业的表现会是疲弱。
7月份的数字便显示总贸易额减9.1%，电子产品出口跌5%是非石
油国内出口落2.3%、跌得比预期还严重的原因。
非石油进口则能反映国内需求。它在7月份连续第五个月下跌，
再跌19.3%。以三个月的走势看，下跌的趋势越来越急，显示国内需
求非常疲软。
（作者是怡富投资管理新加坡基金经理。本栏是新加坡股票交易所和
新加坡投资管理协会联办的公众教育计划。）
