● 陈和兴 by tan hoe heng
how do you decide whether to buy the stock of company a
or company b? or be-tween investing your money in singapore
or malaysia? the two commonly used approaches for such
decisions are technical analysis and fundamental analysis.
this article will introduce you to both approaches and their
principles.
when technical analysis is mentioned, people often
think of analysts plotting price movements of stocks,
drawing lines to find trends, support or resistance.
technical analysis is the art of deducing probable
future trend from historical records of stock trading. it
is the study of the stock market itself rather than the
external factors that influence the market. the most
familiar indicators used are the price and volume of a
stock.
advocates of technical analysis believe that information
is not immediately reflected in the market prices of stocks.
for example, when a piece of good news about a company is
available, it is not immediately known to everyone but is
slowly passed from one person to another. this process
takes time and an upward price trend develops for that
company as more and more people hear the good news and want
to buy the stock and fewer and fewer people are willing to
sell the stock. the stock price which has started to move
in an uptrend will continue to do so until something happens
to change the supply-demand balance. for the technical
analyst, he does not need to know what the good news or any
other information that is affecting the stock price is; the
chart will tell him whether the stock price is going to move
up or down. he does not need to know the fundamentals of
the company because if the price is going up, the
fundamentals must be improving.
on the other hand, fundamental analysis examines all
relevant factors affecting the stock price in order to
determine an intrinsic value for that stock. if the market
price is below the intrinsic value, then the stock is
undervalued and should be bought. the factors to consider
include balance sheet items, corporate management, business
prospects and earnings outlook. the fundamental analyst
calculates financial ratios based on data available from the
balance sheet and income statement of a company. from these
ratios, he deduces the financial strength and earnings trend
of the company. then he will meet the company's management
to affirm his deductions, to understand the business and to
learn of any new development of the company and the
industry.
a widely used tool in fundamental analysis is the
price-earnings ratio or pe ratio. it is calculated using
the stock price divided by the earnings per share (eps) of a
company. as a general rule, a stock with a low pe ratio is
considered cheap although there are difficulties in applyi
ng
this principle. pe ratios of two companies can only be
compared if the companies are similar. it is believed that
companies in different industries deserve different pe
ratios. for example, singapore telecom is believed to
deserve a higher pe ratio than many other stocks because of
its position in the telecommunication business. however,
analysts have not yet agreed on what pe ratio each industry
or company deserves and there is no one way to determine the
right pe ratio.
both approaches attempt to predict the future price
movement of a stock. fundamentalists study the cause of
market movement while technicians believe that the effect is
all that they need to know. despite their differences, both
approaches try to increase your probability of picking up
the right stock at a right price. however, these methods
only increase your chances but do not guarantee complete
success. some believe that fundamental analysis is good for
picking the right stock while technical analysis is
appropriate to decide the right price or time to buy.
for the professional investor, he has to take another
step of deciding the sequence of analysis. this will have
an impact on how the investor divides his money among
different countries and stocks. basically, the investor
decides whether the market as a whole or the company itself
is more important in determining stock prices. both factors
definitely influence stock prices but the degree of
influence is the issue.
the top-down approach or sometimes known as the
economy-industry-company (eic) model emphasises the market
over the company. it starts with the analysis of different
economies to determine which country could offer the
investor better returns. in the selected economy, it
searches for industries that provide better prospects and it
picks the best companies within these industries. the
top-down approach offers a systematic and structured way to
analyse stocks. it advocates that the economy and industry
effects are significant factors in determining the total
return for stocks.
the bottom-up or stock picking approach believes in
finding stocks that are undervalued which can provide
superior returns irrespective of the market and industry
factors. the company effect is the dominant factor in
determining stock return.
there is no overwhelming evidence to suggest which
approach offers superior returns to the investors. the most
important thing is that an investor is comfortable with a
particular method, understands its strengths and
limitations, experiments with it, finds that it works for
him and abides by the method.
(the writer is investment manager of tat lee asset
management limited. this column has the support of
investment management association of singapore and the stock
exchange
of singapore.)
如何选择股票?
应买a公司还是b公司的股票？该把钱投资于新加坡还是马来西亚
？本文将介绍两个常用来解答问题的方法：技术分析和基础分析。
一提起技术分析，人们就会想到股票分析员画股价走势图找支持
线和阻力线。基本上，这个方式是根据过去的记录预测未来表现。换
句话说，技术分析研究股市本身，不是影响它的外在因素；而股价和
成交量是它最常用的数据。
技术分析的支持者认为，影响股价的消息没有立即反映在股价上
。举例说，一家公司的好消息并不是每个人都同时知道的，而是从一
人传到另一个，整个过程需要一段时间。越来越多人知道这好消息后
会买进，而越来越少人愿意卖掉，这么一来使股价逐步升高。股价会
因此继续上升直到供应与需求的平衡出现变化。
但对技术分析员来说，他并不需要知道那好消息是什么，走势图
将告诉他股价会起还是落。他也不需知道公司的基础因素，对他来说
，基础会随着股价上升而改善。他们相信历史会重演，可从过去的股
价走势推测它将来的表现。
另一方面，基础分析则研究所有可能影响股价的因素，以确定股
票的实际价值。如果市价低过实值，就值得买进。基础分析员研究资
产与负债表的项目、企业管理层、业务展望和盈利潜能，再根据资产
与负债表和损益表提供的数据计算而得的比例，判断这家公司的财力
和盈利趋势。分析员也会与公司的管理层会面，了解它的业务以及有
关公司和行业的最新发展。
本益比是基础分析中最常用的比例，计算方式是股价除每股盈利
。一般上，低本益比表示股票便宜。
不过，这个准则有时不太好用。两家公司从事相同的业务，才能
够比较它们的本益比；不同行业的公司，本益比通常是不一样的。举
例说，以新电信在电信业的地位，它的本益比会较其他公司高。
对于每个行业的本益比应是多少，分析员们到目前为止还没有定
论，而且也没有计算正确本益比的方式。
技术分析和基础分析都尝试预测股价今后的走势。它们的做法虽
然不一样，但都尽可能帮助投资者以合适的价格买入有增值潜能的股
票。不过，它们都只能提高可能性，而不能保证。有些人认为，基础
分析较适合用于选择股票，而技术分析则适用于决定买入的时机和价
格。
对专业投资者来说，他们还必须决定分析的步骤。这将影响投资
者把资金分配于不同市场和股票的决定。基本上，他们决定市场的整
体走势还是公司本身对股价的影响比较大。这两个因素都会影响股价
，但程度可能不同。
从上至下的方法侧重于整体市场。它首先决定哪个市场能带来较
高的回报，然后再选择具投资展望的行业和属于这一行的公司。这是
个系统化的股票分析方式，认为经济和行业是决定股票回报的重要因
素。
而从下至上的选择股票方式，无视市场和行业因素，重点是选择
市值低于估值的股票，认为公司本身是决定回报的最重要因素。
哪个方式能带来较高的回报，并没任何研究证明。最重要的是投
资者懂得所选择方式的优缺点，并尝试使用。
（作者是达利资金管理公司的投资经理。本栏是新加坡股票交易
所和新加坡投资管理协会联办的公众教育计划。）
